Game Stock Tumble Warranted?
Friday, October 10th, 2008Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past while, dear reader, you know about the teensy weensy market crisis that is currently giving the American economy a good, solid kick to the junk. I could definitely go off on a tangent about my personal opinion of the bailout bill, the seemingly merry ignorance of massive personal debt, and the now rewarding of Wall Street for some insanely poor business practices.
However, I won’t.
What I will comment on is a news article I saw today detailing the falling prices of game company stock. For those of you not interested in slogging through the entire article, let’s look at the highlights for the past month:
- Activision-Blizzard. Down 28% from $16.62 to $11.95
- EA. Down 37% from $44.21 to $27.80
- THQ. Down 39% from $8.34 to $5.49
- Take 2. Down 40% from $13.01 to $8.76
Things look even worse when you look at the year on year drops. EA has a whopping 54% drop while THQ has plummeted 68% over the last year. This are not cheery number for an industry that was declared to be recession proof. Indeed, it shows just how bad the current market panic is.
My personal view is, however, that the time will soon be right for snatching up some stocks for the old portfolio at basement prices. I fully agree with analysts who believe that the game industry is relatively stable compared to other industry sectors at the moment, although I won’t go so far as to say that they are recession proof.
The big problem in predicting what game companies will do in the current market crisis is their relative age. We haven’t seen what happens to a fully developed electronic game market in this kind of situation. Market problems of the 80s saw a very different landscape in the realm of video games. Nintendo was king of the hill having already saved the market from a self-created meltdown. Indeed, I think Nintendo will once again do very well in the face of adversity. Their new marketing direction as seen in the Wii and DS has broadened their appeal to an extremely wide market. The hardcore gamers might be made at darling Nintendo for abandoning them for the masses, but we were the ones that started the affair cycle upon jumping ship to the Playstation.
Console wars aside, I feel that the game market itself in terms of basic dollars and cents will come out of this mess very well. In the past, movies and other forms of affordable and basic entertainment have always done well in recessions. People need something to take their minds off of the crumbling foundations of society that are all around them. Why not pick up Madden and score a few virtual touchdowns?
Me? Well, I’m off to the bank to buy some game stocks.